Suppose you were the President of a country. You were told that an epidemic was imminent and that it was expected to kill 6000 people. Your Minister of Health tells you that you have the choice of two immunizations schedules. Schedule A will save 2000 people. Program B has a 1/3 probability of saving all; but a 2/3 probability of saving none. (6000 people will die.) What is your choice? Write it down.
Now you consult a group of eminent physicians and scientists. They tell you that they have devised two new vaccinations. Prgram C will allow 4000 people to die. Program D has a 1/3 probability that no one will die. What is your choice? Write it down.
Does this problem sound somewhat similar? It should, if you've read my blog from the beginning. So now, I'm going to refer you back to my series on Prospect Theory.
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